India seems to be closer to war with China. The mutual trust between the two nations has been completely knocked off and it seems India working very closely with the Americans as part of their defense strategy which threatens China's commercial interest in the Indian Ocean region. It is evident from the three points. The first is the basis of the relationship. Last year, China did not have an ambassador in Delhi and the last ambassador had made it very clear repeatedly that the One-China policy is the basis of India-China relations, and it is this one-China policy that has taken a knock from India. From the Chinese perspective, it portrays three examples. India has decided to open Taiwan's third economic and cultural center in Mumbai, akin to opening a consulate of Taiwan in Mumbai. The other two centers as it is evident are in Delhi and Chennai. Since Prime Minister Modi came to power in 2014, India has stopped mentioning the One-China policy; even today, the Americans in their official communique mentioned the One-China policy. But India has stopped doing that.
 |
| India-China War in 1962. Source: India Today |
Recently, On August 8, three retired military Chiefs: one from the Air Force, the Army, and the Navy attended a security conference in Taipei organized by the Taiwan foreign Ministry and inaugurated by the Taiwanese president. This does not seem to have gone very well with China. So, this is the basis, as far as the Chinese are concerned of the One-China policy. India has been flexing its muscle in China's backyard. Two examples that India tries to vein out on these two cases- India recently supported the Philippines 2016 ruling of the International Court of Justice which was given which favored the Philippines against China in the South China Sea something it had not done earlier. And then we had an Indian Navy doing an exercise with ASEAN in the South China Sea knowing fully well that the Indian Navy does not have the ship endurance or the capability to fight a war in South China. This is the basis of the relationship which from China's perspective, no longer exists now. Looking at the glaring example of mutual trust is that, on the 10th of September 2020, the two Nations’ (India and China) foreign ministers signed a joint statement in Moscow where it was agreed to have peace and tranquility. It was mentioned that disengagement will happen, but it was not specified when it will happen and will move towards confidence-building measures for peace and security on the line of control despite that twice as far as the Chinese are concerned something they have not done with the Americans!
 |
| Line of Actual Control (LAC) Source: TakeIndiaForward |
The defense minister visited India trying to explain that the border issue should be part of the overall relationship, but India has consistently maintained that the Line of Actual Control (LAC) is the basis unless the Border issue is normalized. It has not been explained formally which means, the statements come from the top Ministers of the government (about disengagement de-escalation, and De-induction) and there is a likelihood of going back to the status quo of April 2020 which in any case has not been mentioned. The joint statement of 10 September 2020, the position of India is that, unless the relations are not normalized, the relations on the LAC or overall relations cannot improve. The last straw on the camel's back was the recent BRICS meeting, the BRICS Summit where Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Modi had a meeting. The media drew several narratives on their meet. The narrative is not very clear about who invited who to the meeting, but it appears that it happened in the leaders' lounge and, as far as India is concerned, it is called just a ‘conversation.’ But, as far as the Chinese are concerned, they have said that in-depth talks happened. We need to put the ‘Border’ in a correct perspective and look at the overall relationship and try and have regional peace and Global Peace and work together for that. As far as the readout of the Ministry of External Affairs is concerned, the stated position of India that normalization on the issue is important. Without that, there can be no overall relationship. So, this mutual trust has gone down the drain as far as the threat is concerned it is very obvious that especially after the visit of Prime Minister Modi’s June visit to America where a couple of agreements were signed; one of the key agreements was on the shipyard and dockyard agreement which makes the Indian Naval bases and dockyards de facto military basis for the coordination.
Even for the U.S. military, this obviously, is a
threat in making as far as the Chinese are concerned because their commercial
trade goes through that and through the Indian Ocean region, and their Maritime
Silk Road is also there so as far as the legal aspects are concerned. China
today has made a tight case, and the legal aspect is for their people. They have
done this in three phases: 31 places in Arunachal Pradesh which they claim as
part of South Tibet have been renamed and recently, they have come out with a
new map that shows the entire state of Arunachal Pradesh as part of China. Recently
American President Joe Biden said to CNN's Fareed Zakaria. In his interview in
July, he said that he has known Xi Jinping perhaps the most than any other
world leader. Xi Jinping does not want war… China is not an expansionist. But it
will have a United China now. United China means that at some stage, it has not
been specified by China they want Taiwan as well as Tibet to unify with the
main line so-called ‘Unified China.’
So, as far as India is concerned, this is where the
circumstances are headed for achieving their latent aims and objectives. China
will go to war and the war will not last more than 10 days according to the
experts. It will be a decisive war and ten objectives will be accomplished by the
war. Whether to unleash the war, the ball is in India's Court. As far as the
Chinese are concerned, we recently had the reports that more preparation for underground
bunkers and underground storage stuff is all being done in the Tibet autonomous
region. This is not surprising at all with the preparation for the war they
started in earnest as far as the PLA is concerned. Since 2018 they have been
working on it for the last five years and in all these underground things are to
take care of the contingencies. If before the war the Americans decide to give
the Indian military weapons long-range precision weapons it is against all that, so the preparation is going. Once again, the ball is in India's escort, and it
is for Prime Minister Modi to take the next step.
Let's hope PM Modi does his homework otherwise, the
two nations could be headed for a disaster. Recall the last war, which was fought in
1962 and now, 62 years later, there could be another War which will be a
decisive one.